中国啤酒行业报告:啤酒将比白酒更受青睐-China Liquor SectorFill more beer into the glass-58页

2019-08-23 热度 ★★★ 瑞信
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Capacity closure is one of the most effective ways to improve margin and efficiencyconsidering a low utilisation rate in
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Capacity closure is one of the most effective ways to improve margin and efficiency conside**ng a low utilisation rate in the China beer market. After a pe**od of land grab through fast capacity expansion and M&As by leading ******s, we notice the industry's utilisation rate expe**enced a sharp decrease from 78% in 2013 to 63% in 2016, following a sh**nk in the overall industry volume. International beer companies such as ABInBev and Carl***rg have closed more than ten brewe**es in China since 2016. Later, more Chinese ******s started to join in, although the whole process was not easy.

■ CRB is the pioneer among domestic ******s. It closed 2/5/13 plants in 2016/17/18, respectively, and plans to close another 7-10 in 2019. After a se**es of shutdowns, the benefit is obvious with the utilisation rate and deprecation/PBT ratio improving to 53.7% and 48.8% in 2018, from 53.1% and 91.6% in 2015.
■ also has a clear path of capacity optimisation. The company shut down two plants located in Shanghai and Anhui in 2018 and plans to close at least 10 over the next five years (2-3 each year). As a result, its utilisation rate lift to 57% in 2018 (from 53.8% in 2017) and depreciation/PBT ratio lowered to 35.9% in 2018 (from 43.9% in 2017).

The market is concerned whether the **sing malt cost will put a dampener on gross margin expansion conside**ng the Australia barley p**ce has been up 17% YoY in 1Q19. Webelieve this pressure is manageable for leading ******s thanks to their strong bargain power against suppliers, mix improvement and sufficient inventory (3-6 months). We did a sensitivity ****ysis of CRB and Tsingtao's gross margins, based on different assumptions of malt cost and ASP. Assuming malt cost up 15% and ASP grows 3-4%, our sensitivity ****ysis shows gross margin could improve to 36.3-36.9% from 35.7% for CRB and expand to 32.3-32.9% from 31.7% for Tsingtao in 2018, or 0.6-1.2 pp for both companies. 
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